Unit Structures: Situational Relevance in Social Networking Websites

Situational Relevance in Social Networking Websites
Posted 1/12/2006 09:15:00 PM |

-or- The Vast, Untapped Secondary Social Networking Market

Anyone who has spent a fair amount of time on a social networking website is familiar with the "what's next?" problem. Put quite simply, "what's next?" is what you say to yourself after you have exhausted the novelty of the service, and from that moment on you use the site less and less.

Friendster.com has been stung terribly by this problem. Orkut and LinkedIn as well. Looking at the traffic graphs for Friendster and LinkedIn we can see similar traffic patterns - a long, steady climb upward, followed by a sharp drop, and decreasing pageviews over time. In television, they call a phenomenon like this "jumping the shark". While I'm not going to try and coin such a catchy name, I call this the "what's next?" moment because it represents the time period when the users sat up, looked around, and got tired of the service.

MySpace and Facebook (Alexa's charts are misleading) do not suffer from this problem. In many ways, Facebook and Friendster and MySpace and LinkedIn are similar: the visible technology, interface and face-value outcomes of site use are all very much similar. Why is it, then, that users demonstrate clear preference of some social networking websites over others?

The answer, it turns out, is actually quite simple, and it deals with the concept of situational relevance. We all have many social networks: our primary social network, which is comprised of our close friends and family, and numerous secondary social networks, which may be comprised of coworkers, classmates, neighbors, fellow church patrons, teammates and so on. As our social networks are webs, the primary and the secondary nets all intertwine; regardless, we maintain separate identities for each.

Additionally, at different times in our lives, our primary and secondary social networks grow together and apart. For example:

As youths, our primary social network grows very close to the secondary social network of classmates.
As we enter adulthood, our primary social network moves away from the secondary social network of our classmates, and towards the secondary social network of coworkers and community relationships.
As grown adults, our primary social network may move closer to the secondary social networks of PTA's, church groups and neighborhood associations.

Of course, these lists are not absolute, just illustrative examples. At different times in our lives, different social networks play more or less important roles: they are situationally relevant.

From birth through adolescence and young adulthood, our primary social network expands continuously. Eventually, we settle; the incentives for primary social network expansion, such as partnering and friend aggregation, diminish. As we settle on a core social network, the secondary social networks step forward to serve the role of providing us a steady stream of new people to meet (sustaining a human need for sociality). Just as "the new kid" was a remarkable event in grade school, the new neighbors down the street and the new vocal parent at the PTA provide us with later-life social network renegotiation that we all find interesting.

Regardless of how it is spun, all social networking websites rely on users to fuel the interestingness of the system. Users know that the websites are only as interesting as who is on them; that is why social networking website users often become advocates to non-users. However, once everyone is on the website, the users are posed with a quandary: "what's next?" We know what happens to traffic after that point.

The actual problem is not that users are tired of each other or the sites are faddish (common explanations); it is simply that the users no longer need the website's service. Take the case of Friendster: Aimed at a mid-to-late twenties demographic, Friendster positions itself as a way for people to visualize and expand their primary social network. The problem, of course, is that an average Friendster user has long established much of his or her primary social network. If the average user is not frequently or drastically changing his or her primary social network, a site that seeks to aid in that role is actually not useful. Visualization and exploration of a social network is simply not enough.

Let's bring situational relevance back into the picture. In the context of social networks, situational relevance of a social networking site is based on 1) the demographic it attempts to serve, and 2) the social network it attempts to map. While it is almost always interesting to view social networks (for example, conducting a time-to-time investigation of ex-classmates on Classmates.com), to create real value, a site must be positioned properly. To do so, the site must address the social network, primary or secondary, of a demographic where that social network is relevant and in flux.

Facebook may be the best example to date of synergistic situational relevance. Facebook addresses a secondary social network (classmates) that is, at the time, closely tied to the primary social network of its demographic (college students). College students spend 4 years constantly in flux, each semester meeting new people and dynamically shifting their primary and secondary social networks. For the college student, their world is largely the campus; the Facebook provides a constant companion as they navigate the college experience. For this reason, I believe that the Facebook, as long as it continues to serve the core information needs of the students (by continuing to give them interesting ways to explore information about each other), will continue to stay relevant on college campuses for a long time to come. Of course, poor marketing or unpopular business practices could diminish the brand; nevertheless, students will always find a service like the Facebook necessary and useful, because it answers student's social and informational needs.

I hold Facebook up as a shining example, of course, because it is the service that best fits my criteria of situational relevance. LinkedIn, the popular business networking site, is an example of a site that addresses a secondary social network of a relevant demographic. However, LinkedIn is not nearly as popular as Facebook. Unfortunately for LinkedIn, the only time people strongly rely on their personal-professional secondary social network are in times of need. When someone has a comfortable job, there is limited incentive to invest much time in a site like LinkedIn. While LinkedIn serves a real need, its users will never be simultaneously vested in the system the way Facebook's users are.

Now let us look at Friendster and MySpace, two sites that attempt to serve the primary social network of a wide demographic. Friendster and MySpace eschew situational relevance, opening up the door to all comers; as a result, both are faced with the "what's next" problem. Friendster did not successfully deal with this problem; MySpace, by properly leveraging the userbase's media interests, is in the process of a transformation. Both sites effectively realized that leveraging non-dynamic social networks eventually lead to burnout, or "what's next?"

Addressing secondary social networks of relevant demographics may seem formulaic, but it requires changing attitudes towards the ways websites support social networks. For example, residents of a neighborhood, whose primary social network do not change, are interested in the constantly changing secondary social networks that comprise their neighbors. Church members, again, whose primary social networks do not vastly change, are very interested in the constantly changing secondary social networks of their fellow worshippers. These networks are large, personally relevant and dynamic (new neighbors move in, new worshippers join the church, families expand and change, etc); unfortunately, simply setting up neighborhoodsocialnetwork.com or churchsocialnetwork.com is not the answer.

Secondary social networks do not benefit from economies of scale. That is, simply because I am interested in my fellow neighbors, I am not interested in all neighbors everywhere, nor do I wish for all neighbors everywhere (a secondary social network that may encompass many of my social networks) to be able to see my particular identity in that social network. In each social network, we possess a unique identity; this is why the Facebook works. In the Facebook, students can retain a particular identity without worry of everyone (parents, siblings) being privy to that identity. In essence, the vast, untapped secondary social networking market is comprised of semi-open (gated) secondary social network communities.

Imagine gated social networks for parents of students at a school. Imagine gated social networks for the in-flux neighborhoods of a place like Cary, NC or Northern Virginia. Imagine a gated social network for church members, for employees of a company, for adults entering retirement living. All of these cases, and the many more like it, involve in-flux social networks that the relevant demographic is personally vested in, where they have strong incentive to participate. Since these secondary social networks are gated, users are comfortable the way college students are comfortable in the Facebook.

Of course, there are difficulties that come with this model. The Facebook gets off easy by limiting access by email accounts; they let the universities do the gating for them. Gating churches and neighborhoods are harder, but how much harder? I can think of a number of solutions off the top of my head; if a business could solve this problem elegantly, there's no limit to the secondary social networks that can be augmented by websites. In a sense, this is the perfect long tail, and everything that is right about Web 2.0. There's gold in them hills, people. Now go get it.

Permalink | | to this post
View blog reactions | Post to

23 Comments: (Post a Comment)

At July 01, 2006 2:39 PM, Anonymous said...: Fred: I actually clicked on the link you provide for Friendster. Have you seen it? I think you might have intended to post a different link ;-) The link you post doesn't match the text.
At July 01, 2006 2:52 PM, Fred Stutzman said...: Are you referring to the data in the graphs? This article was written in January - so at the time, the information was correct. Since that time, Friendster has been reorganized, and it appears that inconsistencies in the way LinkedIn data was being reported to Alexa have been fixed. That said, I am always extremely suspicious of these traffic graphs.

In the time that's passed since writing this article, I've changed my views on LinkedIn in terms of motivations for use. I'll be writing about it pretty soon, I think.
At July 01, 2006 2:56 PM, Fred Stutzman said...: The other way to look at it is those were "What's next" moments - and the services actually stepped up and gave their users things to do. We know that is the case with Friendster, and I think LinkedIn has recently made it much easier for its users to establish connections.

That a SNS comes to a "What's next?" moment isn't a death knell - and maybe we're seeing to examples of services who answered the needs of its users. Now this could make an interesting follow up post...
At July 01, 2006 3:34 PM, Chris said...: Great post. I started to write a very long comment but used it on my own site (I only have so much typing in me each day).
At July 02, 2006 12:14 AM, Mind Valley said...: Great and thoughtful post! I think you are on to something with your idea and I agree that the opportunity to tab into the other in-flux social networks presents a huge opportunity. We are working on an idea to try to bring these communities together and allow them to share their experiences via www.blinklife.com. We still have ways to go but your thoughts in this essay really resonate with our thinking.
At July 02, 2006 5:11 AM, Hannes Offenbacher said...: Dear Fred,

what do you think about "open Business Club" ? I guess it is not known in the US - but it is the european answer to LinkedIn with now 1.3 "ONLY" business members (20% with a payed premium membership)..

check out: http://www.openbc.com

Best wishes,
Hannes Offenbacher
comdao.net [Networking Terminal]
At July 02, 2006 11:47 AM, Fred Stutzman said...: I've actually come across openBC quite a bit in the past few months - a number of openBC users have created ClaimID profiles, as it is a natural companion to an online resume. It does seem to be a very popular service, though when I logged in I didn't know anyone ;) It isn't big in North Carolina yet ;)
At July 02, 2006 2:06 PM, Anonymous said...: Fred,

Great Post. I've read a lot of your stuff recently and think you are right on with your analysis of social networking sites, especially Facebook.

It is clear that Facebook has a stronghold on the college market with its "synergistic situational relevance", but I was wondering what would stop someone else from entering their arena with an enhanced product with more ways to display personal information relevant to college life. I haven't heard of any startup attempts to challenge Facebook in the one of a kind college demographic when it seems to me that Facebook has begun to focus resources elsewhere (High Schools and businesses), while college students, especially incoming freshman, would be most willing of anyone to try something new.

Any thoughts?
At July 02, 2006 9:00 PM, Anonymous said...: Hey Fred:

Sorry, I posted the comment on the Alexa graph. You're right, article ws written before Alexa graph went ballistic. Something is also quietly up with Orkut. I know the story is "Big in Brazil", but I think more must be going on for them to be hitting 20-ish on Alexa.

Your stuff is great. I enjoy it.
At July 03, 2006 9:43 AM, Fred Stutzman said...: Anon (Comment 8) - There are a number of college-oriented SNS startups. Xuqa is currently the strongest contender. There's nothing structural that keeps these services out of the college campus - however, the reason another service hasn't "hit" like Facebook lies in situational relevance.

Students use the Facebook to explore their social networks; if the SNS isn't full of their peer group, who they wish to explore, what good is it? Since the Facebook is stocked at 95% and higher, the barrier to another service coming in on their territory is huge.

Most college students are not internet savvy, they do not want to have multiple profiles on multiple services. Fsacebook is where they have invested their time and social capital, and for many Facebook is there they will stay.

This is not to say other's can't replace the Facebook - this is just a realization that the others have enormous catchup work to do (though, the negative press around the Facebook is certainly not helping things these days.

Anon 9 - Thanks!
At July 03, 2006 6:34 PM, Vivek Hutheesing said...: Fred,

I have just been introduced by a friend to your writings about Social Networking sites and like what you have said.

I run a social software company in Berkeley, CA focused on neighbors, and found your insights to be very relevant and promising, given what we are doing.

I am intrigued by ClaimID but am pretty sure I don't understand it that well. If I decide to use the service, how are you verifying, in the very first instance, that I am in fact Vivek Hutheesing and not masquerading as him. I am not clear about this critical point of departure, from which everything else would then make sense.

Vivek
At July 03, 2006 10:31 PM, Fred Stutzman said...: Vivek, to prove your identity we let you make verified claims of your websites using MicroID. It is very similar to how technorati lets you claim your blog, if you are familiar with that. The main difference is MicroID is a standard, and we are working to get the Yahoo family to adopt.

Above and beyond that, we allow multifactor social identity verification, allowing you to verify your multiple openID's and email addresses to your ClaimID. It is social identity, and it works (as opposed to other, government-credentials means). Hope that helps.
At July 04, 2006 1:39 AM, Vivek Hutheesing said...: Fred,

I read your trilogy on MicroID with interest, but much of it was over my head - my own shortcomings no doubt.

Let me get to the heart of my inquiry. If i want to provide a platform that provides "bounded websites" to neighborhoods (i.e sites that are defined by a finite set of physical street addresses), it is critical that the first person who launches their neighborhood's site be who they say they are. Joe Schmoe must actually be the Joe Schmoe who lives and 1205 Mulberry Lane. As you know, there are large businesses like Experian that serve banks and insurance companies' efforts to authenticate their customers before engaging with them in their account details. Does MicroID, or could MicroID solve this problem when online users are registering with a site for the first time?

This is really a one-time identity verification issue rather than the one I believe you are talking about which is a social one and which, if I'm not mistaken, you or someone else said could be abused. For example, I could create a comcast address called fstutzman123@comcast.net and start creating tons of content in your name with this email address. Then I could start making verified claims to all of those sites. Would that not upset your system entirely?

Thanks,

Vivek
At July 04, 2006 5:24 PM, Fred Stutzman said...: Hi Vivek, I'm afraid to say that MicroID would not work for those purposes. MicroID is a way to verify that two things are the same - for example, a claim of ownership of a flickr photo, and the microid of the flickr photo.

Another way to think about it is a receipt for a computer that shows the computer's serial number, and the actual computer. Since you have a receipt that makes a claim on a unique item (unique because serial numbers generally are), it will let you make a claim of ownership on the computer. If you try and claim a computer that has a serial number different from the one on the receipt, it will be unsuccessful.

I think your situation requires a different type of identity verification. You might wish to look at Trufina - I believe they do "trusted" identity verification. Credit cards are another venue, but it seems like that would be a significant barrier to entry for your product.
At July 05, 2006 2:20 AM, Vivek Hutheesing said...: Hi Fred,

Thanks again for this perspective. I understand it much better now. You are doing great work and making the web a better place for all of us.

I look forward to more communications with you in the future.

Best regards,

Vivek
At July 05, 2006 9:50 AM, Fred Stutzman said...: Vivek, my pleasure! Best of luck.
At July 05, 2006 12:31 PM, Vanina said...: Thank you for this article. I am in favor of social networking for the only reason that we can know people that we never would have know otherwise.
At July 06, 2006 10:56 AM, Anonymous said...: re: Vivek's question -

wouldn't snail mail be a logical means of verifying a local neighborhood network founder?

Physical presence at an address in the neighborhood seems like the most important thing...
At July 06, 2006 6:43 PM, Vivek Hutheesing said...: The anonymous person's comment above is valid as there is no simpler form of address verification. Thanks.
At July 10, 2006 10:36 AM, Anonymous said...: Hi fred.

I read your piece. thanks.

Respectfully, I just wonder whether you're using big words/terms to describe what is perhaps knowlingly simple: social networks are relevant to my age and stage in life. what about that is new?

Friendster etc have softened because social networks in and of it self are useless. It's the utility of the network that matters. What about this am i missing?

I realize i have a small brain...

Thanks,

Jonathan
At September 05, 2006 7:44 PM, Joe Suh said...: Fred, we're starting a discussion about this here: http://www.mychurch.org/blog/view/?ID=406 Would love for you to join in...

I'm realizing there is no community more dynamic and in-flux than college communities. You throw students from around the world into 1 packed location, take away the primary networks they've known for years, and give them high-speed internet and heavy dependence on their peers.

On top of that, you introduce them to new classmates, dorm neighbors, teachers, even majors every few months to make it interesting.

No SNS will ever be more useful and pertinent than those serving the college crowd. Neighborhoods, PTA's, churches... they are nowhere near as dynamic and in-flux as a college campus. Not even close.
At November 24, 2006 5:06 AM, europa said...: Eerst Europa Doelstellingen: De Ci2i Verzekering (Ci2i) zal het nummer een gebrandmerkte pan Europese commoditized online verzekeringsmakelaar door 2010 zijn.
At May 01, 2007 8:35 AM, Anonymous said...: As you said i find myself geting bored with myspace. I find myself on smaller social networking sites where you can meet new friends and without the spam.