Situational Relevance and Facebook's Summer Traffic
Posted 7/17/2006 06:11:00 PM |
Today, Stowe Boyd covered some of my recent Facebook research and came to pretty much the same conclusion that I did - things are looking very good for the Facebook. UNC's freshman Facebook adopters are signing on at better rate than last year, they've got many more friends in many more networks than last year. Since last year saw adoption top out a 94-95 percent (something I consider to be a virtual 100% adoption) - the Facebook appears to be on a course to hit these goals amongst their core audience even earlier this year than last.
I found this situation to be quite interesting. On one hand, we have proof of a rapidly growing Facebook - but on the other, we've got numbers showing a stagnant Facebook. As it turns out, both numbers are correct - and they stand to tell us a good deal about situational relevance.
Situational relevance is a fancy-sounding word I've used to describe how information needs drive use of a service like the Facebook. Simply, a student's social information need is to understand the campus social world around them. As the Facebook is a frighteningly thorough guide to the social world around them, students find it to be a useful resource in learning about and exploring the social world they are trying to master; it answers their situationally relevant information need.
Of course, the information needs of students change over the summer. Their social orientation changes from the expansion of the social network (i.e., meeting lots of new people in class, at parties and researching them) to the management of the social network (keeping up with friends over the summer). As students aren't aggressively expanding their social networks over the summer, the Facebook becomes less situationally relevant. In fact, over the summer, the Facebook isn't all that situationally relevant - explaining the contraction of growth shown in Wilson's graph.
You may wonder - the contraction of growth is a downturn in a sense, but if the Facebook's key play was only situational relevance, wouldn't the downturn be more profound? In a word: yes. There are two key factors (amongst a few others) driving summertime traffic. First and foremost, the Facebook has done a good job diversifying its networks. Through the addition of high school and work networks, the population of the Facebook is diversified as to soften the blow of the summertime slump. Without work and high school networks, the downturn would be profound. Second, there is an audience that has a situationally relevant need in the summer - incoming freshmen. These freshmen (1/4 of Facebook's college population, and easily 1/3 of Facebook's college traffic) are using the Facebook to explore the new world around them. In my study of the 2006 UNC freshmen, I saw higher rates of adoption, vastly higher numbers of friends per freshmen, and more heterogeneity in network participation by freshmen.
These two reasons, coupled with viral use of the Facebook by summering users (the Facebook is still used heavily to keep in touch, look at friends' new pictures, track birthdays) explain why Facebook's expected summer traffic dip is a plateau instead. Information needs drive adoption and use, but the needs don't disappear during the summer. Facebook answers a lot of these needs with product offerings; of course, the information needs aren't as strong, but the increased diversity of the networks and freshman adoption help pick up the slack. If my analysis holds, we should see traffic growth come back in the Fall, starting in mid-August as students return to campus and start making new connections, expanding their social networks and operationalizing their information needs.
In other news, I was quoted in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution article about college athletic departments and their relationship with the Facebook. This follows on a USA Today article in which I was quoted about a similar topic. All hand-waving aside, I certainly look forward to friending Wayne Ellington, Tywon Lawson, Brendan Wright, Alex Stepheson and Deon Thompson ;)
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2 Comments: (Post a Comment)
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At July 18, 2006 7:54 PM,
said...
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It makes sense that the Facebook is going to have some down time over the summer. I think some niche groups, however, flourish (camps, internships, summer programs, etc). I'm at an internship now and a bunch of us are falling in love with Facebook all over again.
I've liked your athlete notes as well. As a WFU grad, though, I could do without the mention of that new hot class of yours. :) Two years ago Chris Paul mentioned to me how he accepts everyone's friendship requests...but how much time it took to do so. I guess it's an extreme case, but it made me wonder if Facebook would ever allow the option for you to accept all friendships automatically if you wanted. I guess that "College Comic" could use that feature as well.
Also, do you know of any glossaries out there for Facebook? I figure if there was one out there, it should be on this site. It might be handy for "outsiders". I just thought of it when I wanted to use the term purgatory. :) -
At July 20, 2006 2:57 PM,
Michael C. Habib said...
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"The chart shows increase in users. MySpace has shown a dramatic increase in users. However, its general nature makes it hard to determine whether users will be loyal, or if they will turn to the next big thing. On the other hand, Facebook has one primary audience, college students, and a number of secondary audiences, everyone else. As Fred's research and theories demonstrate, Facebook is an extremely valuable tool for college students. His data..."
I have blogged my understading of the Facebook usage data here.
